News Monitor #1
JULY 2025

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NEWS ROUNDUP

• Conflict update: In July 2025, junta forces reoccupied contested areas such as Moebye and Nawnghkio in Shan State, while resistance groups captured several military outposts in Mandalay Region. In Rakhine State, the Arakan Army (AA) advanced in Kyaukphyu Township, cutting off military supply routes and causing civilian casualties near riverside villages and coastal areas.
  

• Forced conscription: The junta and other armed groups intensified mandatory military service in July, detaining youths in Yangon, forcibly recruiting civilians in Bago Division and Rakhine State, and reportedly disappearing detainees in conflict-affected areas such as Kyaukphyu, deepening fear and displacement across the country.
  

• Deepening humanitarian crises: Monsoon floods worsened displacement and disease risks in Sagaing and Mandalay, a malaria outbreak killed over 30 due to aid blockages, and clashes drove thousands of new refugees into India and Thailand, while Rohingya in Bangladesh faced severe aid cuts amid monsoon threats.

HUMAN RIGHTS

• In the Kokang region's Lashio Township, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) enforced mandatory military service for one male aged 18 to 40 per household.

• In Yangon, military authorities detained youths at bus stops over conscription laws, often disguised in civilian clothes to target working-class neighborhoods.

• In Arakan State’s Kyaukphyu, detainees are disappearing amid reports of forced military recruitment, especially among those accused of AA affiliations. Similarly, in Pyay, Bago Region, around 50 Rakhine people, including women, were detained for traveling without permits and forcibly conscripted into the junta army, with only a few released after paying bribes.

ARMED CONFLICT

• Following the reoccupation of Moebye, on the Shan-Karenni border, by junta forces, over 20 civilian homes were burned between July 3 and 6.

• Resistance forces captured junta bases in Mandalay Region, with three sites seized in Myittha, Patheingyi, and Myakantha on July 20.

• After an 11-day pause, fighting resumed in Kyaukphyu, Arakan State on July 21, as regime forces targeted the AA with air and artillery strikes. The AA continued to consolidate its territorial control of 14 out of 17 townships in Arakan, as well as Paletwa Township in southern Chin State, while the regime holds control of Sittwe, the state capital.

• Clashes along the Irrawaddy River in Sagaing Region and Northern Shan State resulted in civilian deaths and injuries.

• The military regime reclaimed Nawnghkio in Northern Shan State from the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) on July 16.

• Clashes between junta troops and AA joint resistance forces happened on July 23 in Laymyethna Township, Ayeyarwady Division, as the junta attempted to regain control of the Pathein-Monywa corridor, where parts have fallen under resistance control.

• Regime forces retook Thabeikkyin on July 23 but have withdrawn from some towns due to ongoing fighting with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in Bhamo.

DEVELOPMENT AND HEALTH

• In Sagaing and Mandalay regions, where the monsoon season and recent floods since July 13 have exacerbated displacement and disease risks of the earthquake survivors.

• The health crisis is especially dire in western Burma, where over 30 people - mostly children - have died of malaria this year, according to the Arrakha People’s Revolutionary Government, the administrative branch of the AA. This surpasses the total deaths in 2024. The worst-hit townships include Ann, where at least 21 fatalities occurred, mainly due to shortages of mosquito nets, limited medicine, and residents forced to seek shelter in forests because of ongoing conflict. Humanitarian aid and basic healthcare are hampered by roadblocks and insecurity, disrupting routine vaccinations and leading to rising deaths among children and pregnant women.

DISPLACEMENT

• IDPs from Pauktaw, Rakhine State, now sheltering in Minbya Township, depended on public donations and begging amid severe shortages of food, medicine, and shelter.

• Escalating clashes between rival Chin resistance groups (CNDF and CDF) drove around 4,000 new refugees from Chin State into Mizoram, India, in early July. These arrivals added to the roughly 13,000 Chin already sheltering in Champhai district and an estimated 33,000 across Mizoram, many fleeing violence since the 2021 military coup.

• Fighting along the Thai-Burma border on 4 July saw Karen armed groups attacking junta positions, prompting retaliatory shelling that injured civilians on the Thai side and caused nearly 200 Karen refugees to seek emergency aid in Thailand.

U.S AND INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMACY

• U.S. Congress continued to advance three major Burma-related pieces of legislation – the Burma GAP Act, BRAVE Burma Act, and No New Burma Funds Act. The later was introduced in mid-July and would direct the United States to use its voice and vote at the World Bank to maintain the ongoing pause on disbursements and new financing commitments to the government of Burma.

• The U.S. Treasury’s OFAC delisted several close allies of the military regime from its sanctions list on July 24 as part of a global legal review process. The delisting occurred just two weeks after regime leader Min Aung Hlaing called for reduced sanctions in a letter to President Trump.

• The Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M) welcomed the Human Rights Council’s adoption of a new resolution on Rohingya Muslims and other minorities, an initiative led by the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and urges the UN General Assembly to act. The resolution condemns the junta’s widespread abuses and deliberate obstruction of aid, acknowledges ICC efforts against Min Aung Hlaing, and marks the first recognition of the NUG’s pledge on Rohingya rights.

ROHINGYA CRISIS AND REGIONAL DYNAMICS

• Over 1 million Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh face heightened vulnerability due to severe aid cuts. Monsoon rains exacerbate dangers, with slippery walkways and landslides threatening critical infrastructure like latrines and water points. UNHCR’s community-led maintenance program, which provided income and dignity to refugees, has been slashed. This funding crisis jeopardizes access to food, healthcare, education, and safe infrastructure, leaving families at risk from collapsing facilities. Ongoing conflict and looming further cuts deepen the instability for these already vulnerable refugees, urgently requiring global support.

• Camp authorities initiated an election process for Rohingya to choose an international representative committee in advance of the Rohingya High-Level Conference in New York in September. Community members have voiced concerns about Rohingya representation at the event.

DOMESTIC POLITICS

• The junta prepared for elections in late 2025 or early 2026. Citizens and resistance groups expressed distrust of the process, believing neither real peace nor a fair election is possible under military rule. Skepticism deepened after the junta held a “Peace Forum,” on 27 June in Naypyitaw, which was attended by junta-approved parties, ethnic representatives, and foreign guests but notably excluded resistance groups.

• Following junta leader Min Aung Hlaing’s announcement of elections, several junta-approved parties in Mon State have begun recruitment and campaign activities. Pro-democracy activists and former lawmakers, however, warn that participating in these elections legitimizes military rule. Parties preparing to contest include the USDP, PPP, PP, MUP, NUP, and WP-Mon.

• In Karen State, the Border Guard Force (BGF), a pro-military militia led by Saw Chit Thu, sought to rebrand itself as the “Karen National Army (KNA)” and renewed its support for the military regime after key battlefield losses to the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) last year.

• Chinese mediators are set to facilitate a third round of negotiations between the TNLA and the military in August after previous unsuccessful talks in February and April.

BUSINESS, TRADE & NATURAL RESOURCES

• Reuters reported that China issued an ultimatum to the KIA, threatening to halt purchases of heavy rare earth minerals mined from KIA-controlled territory unless the KIA ceased its offensive in Bhamo. These minerals are essential components in technologies like electric vehicles and wind turbines, and nearly half of their global supply comes from the Kachin region.

• Border trade between Rakhine State and Bangladesh came to a near halt starting in early July, for reasons attributed to the poor current state of relations between Bangladesh and the Arakan Army. Bangladeshi authorities imposed new restrictions, intensified security, seized goods, and blocked exports at major trade points. Traders reported that almost no goods were moving in or out of Maungdaw’s border areas, raising concerns over shortages and rising prices in the region.

• According to India Shipping Minister Sarbananda Sonowal, the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project connecting Mizoram and Chin State by land and Kolkata to Sittwe by sea will be operational by 2027, despite ongoing conflict.

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