News Monitor #4
OCTOBER 2025

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NEWS ROUNDUP

• Campaigning was underway for the junta-organized elections planned for December 2025, which the EU, a UN Special Rapporteur, and others denounced as a "sham" designed to legitimize military rule. 

• Heavy fighting continued across the country, with offensives and counteroffensives waging as the junta struggles to regain resistance-controlled territory, though with limited success in many areas.

• A ceasefire between a key armed group and the junta was brokered in and signed under heavy pressure from China, raising the possibility that some of Myanmar’s military forces could be redeployed for future offensives to regain resistance-held territory.

HUMAN RIGHTS

• The human rights group Fortify Rights warned that the Arakan Army (AA) is subjecting ethnic minorities, including Rohingya, to forced labor, a practice that may constitute war crimes. The AA denied the allegations.

• Myanmar's military raided the KK Park cybercrime hub near the Thai border in Karen State in mid-October, arresting over 2,000 workers and seizing 30 Starlink satellite terminals. Despite the raid, reports suggest that scam operations in the Myawaddy area continue to function.

• The Karen National Union (KNU) denied the junta's accusations that its leadership profited from the KK Park online scam complex, claiming this is a political smear to conceal the regime's own ties.

ARMED CONFLICT

• Chin: Tensions between rivals Chin National Army (CNA) and Chin National Defense Force (CNDF) continued, with the CNA capturing CNDF headquarters. The move was seen as retaliation for the CNDF’s reported capture of Rikhawdar town in Falam District.

• Mon: Junta troop reinforcements entered Kyaikmaraw Township on October 26, reportedly aiming to secure polling stations and planning clearance operations in nearby areas.

• Kachin: The Myanmar military launched major airstrikes on October 21 against the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in Hpakant Township, escalating the battle for control of the key jade hub.

• Kayin/Karen: Intense clashes occurred between the Myanmar military and Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) around the town of Lay Kay Kaw in mid-October, with heavy shelling reported.

• Kayah/Karenni: An internally displaced person (IDP) was killed and two injured in a drone strike by the Myanmar military while harvesting rice on October 21. The Myanmar military also regained control of a key road.

• Rakhine: The AA withdrew from some previously held areas in the strategic Kyaukphyu area following a Myanmar military offensive, which included coordinated air, naval, and ground forces. The Myanmar junta deployed warships near Munaung Island. 

• Shan: The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) agreed to withdraw from Mongmit in northern Shan and the ruby-mining center of nearby Mogok in Mandalay Region, signing a ceasefire with the military on October 28. The ceasefire followed the military takeback of strategic Kyaukme from the TNLA after a fierce 21-day counteroffensive, which followed earlier gains around Lashio. The cessation of fighting in these areas raises the possibility that some of Myanmar’s military forces could be redeployed for future offensives to regain resistance-held territory.

• Ayarwaddy: Airstrikes by the Myanmar Air Force in Ye Kyi Township killed 24 civilians and injured 20 on October 23. The AA and Myanmar military have fought in nearby areas for months, but there had been no fighting in the village.

• Bago: At least 15 junta soldiers were killed and 12 captured in a resistance ambush in Letpadan Township on October 15.

• Magway: Fighting and strikes were documented in Pakokku, Seik Phyu, Minbu, and Myaing Townships throughout October. On October 2, the People’s Revolutionary Alliance (PRA-Magway) claimed to have detained 27 junta soldiers fleeing combat.   

• Mandalay: During several clashes in early October, resistance troops killed 40 junta soldiers and seized around 50 weapons.

• Sagaing: On October 7, a military paraglider attacked a candlelight vigil in the Sagaing Region, killing dozens of civilians, including children.

• Tanintharyi: Clashes stalled the junta’s attempt to secure the border trade route. In Longlone Township, resistance forces arrested the leader of the local Pyusawti militia.

HUMANITARIAN, ECONOMIC & SOCIAL CONDITIONS

• The hunger crisis around the country continues to deepen, with heavy impacts in Rakhine and Kayah/Karenni States, among others.

• A UN Development Programme analysis published this month found that one in four youth in Myanmar are not employed, and three in four youth aged 18 to 24 are out of school or training. 

• A Myanmar Now report discussed the overlapping humanitarian, economic and mental health crises in urban Yangon.

• A Frontier Myanmar feature examined the wave of marriages by underage girls to avoid the military draft.

U.S AND INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMACY

• ASEAN leaders met on October 26 and expressed concern over the lack of progress in the implementation of the 5-Point Consensus by Myanmar's authorities since the 2021 coup. 

• On October 27, diplomatic sources said that ASEAN would not send election observers to Myanmar.

• Burmese in Japan appealed to President Trump for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi.

• In the Vatican, Pope Leo appealed for a ceasefire in Myanmar during an October 19 mass.

ROHINGYA CRISIS AND REGIONAL DYNAMICS

• Reflections posted about the high-level UN conference on the Rohingya conference on September 30 express general underwhelm and a sense that it failed to generate adequate momentum toward solutions. PAEMA issued a call for immediate action where possible, including increased aid in Rakhine State, investigations of alleged war crimes, and civic engagement initiatives.

• The Bangladesh Border Guard issued a statement denying the AA’s accusation that it supports Rohingya armed groups. 

• The AA and Arakan Salvation Army (ARSA) exchanged fire for more than three hours in the Bangladesh-Rakhine borderland region on October 7.

DOMESTIC POLITICS

• Campaigning began for the junta-organized elections in December 2025.

• The UN Special Rapporteur and others denounced the elections as a "sham" designed to legitimize military rule. Opposition parties have been banned, as have election rallies, and those who try to “obstruct the vote” have been threatened with harsh penalties.

BUSINESS, TRADE & NATURAL RESOURCES

• China reopened eight border gates under the control of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), easing restrictions on food and construction materials. The move signifies a shifting dynamic in Chinese relations and trade in the region.

• A Bangkok Tribune report examined how unregulated mining in Myanmar is poisoning Thai stretches of the Mekong and its tributaries.

• Lawyers representing Defend Myanmar Democracy and Myanmar Internet Project sent a pre-action letter to Telenor ASA (Norway) for sharing sensitive customer data with the junta, which was “used to track, detain, torture, and kill activists and other civilians.”

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